Boris Johnson knows how to make himself the centre of attention in a way Theresa May never did

A SPECTRE haunts the Tory election campaign the spectre of 2017.

I feel confident, but then I felt confident in 2017, one leading Cabinet Minister tells me.

There is a Tory fear that history could repeat itself that Jeremy Corbyn could surge again and an election designed to deliver a majority for Brexit could once more lead to a hung Parliament. But oddly, 2017 is one of the things that mean the Tories might win that majority this time round. They are determined not to make the same mistakes again. As one senior party figure puts it: We screwed it up once. Were not going to do that again.

When Chancellor Sajid Javid spoke to Tory MPs on Wednesday night, he reassured them that this campaign will not be like last time. He described Theresa Mays 2017 effort as the most incompetent election campaign in modern times.

In 2017, the Tories assumed that their chunky poll lead would easily translate into a big majority. There was a complacency and cockiness about their campaign. There was no rationale for why Mrs May was going back on her pledge not to have an election and a belief that the Tories could use that lead to win a mandate for almost anything.

This time round, the Tories are being much more cautious. The groundwork has been laid for this campaign. Conservative Campaign HQ has been getting election-ready for months. The Tories have heavy-hitters ready to join their campaign team, including Paul Stephenson, one of the key figures from Vote Leaves 2016 victory. In 2017, Mrs May took her own party machine by surprise with her decision to go to the country.

In another difference with the ex-PM, Boris Johnson has a clear argument for why an election is needed the only thing this Parliament is capable of on Brexit is delay. It is hard to see how anyone who wants Brexit and has seen what has happened since the 2017 election could disagree with that.

This Tory desire not to screw up will also lead to more discipline. This time, the manifesto will be a cautious document, not an attempt to gain a mandate for a series of deeply unpopular reforms. The fact that everyone knows this election will be close helps the Tories too. Therell be much more scrutiny of what a Corbyn premiership would mean than there was in 2017.

DEEPLY UNPOPULAR

Cabinet Ministers believe that the prospect of a Labour/SNP deal which would see Nicola Sturgeons Scottish Nationalists help Corbyn into Downing Street in exchange for another independence referendum is already cutting through, and particularly in Scotland, where the Tories are increasingly confident they can limit their losses to five seats or fewer.

But perhaps the biggest difference from 2017 is between Johnson and May. May had never done a national campaign before, she disliked big events and preferred going door to door. Boris, by contrast, is a showman who has already successfully fronted one nationwide effort, the 2016 referendum. Boris knows how to make himself the centre of attention in a way Mrs May never did.

As one Cabinet minister puts it: Boris is capable of stealing the oxygen from all the other candidates.

The most significant threat to the Tories is pro-Remain tactical voting. The big question, frets one Cabinet minister, is whether Labour and the Lib Dems end up splitting the centre-left vote and letting the Tories win as happened with Labour and the SDP in 1983 or whether there is anti-Tory voting that condemns scores of previously safe Tory MPs to defeat as happened in 1997.

But if the Tories avoid the pitfalls of 2017, then even from a much less promising starting position they should be able to win a majority.

Who’ll win by a head-to-head

THIS election will see the first ever head-to-head televised leaders debate between the two big parties. On November 19, Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson will clash in primetime on ITV. Both Labour and the Tories think they will benefit from this one-on-one format.

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn will clash on primetime TV

On the Labour side, they hope that it helps them unite the anti-Tory vote behind Corbyn. The Tories think the question of who you want to be Prime Minister Johnson or Corbyn favours them.

During the 2017 campaign, Theresa May lost her lead on this question. But right now, Boris Johnson has a 23-point advantage over Corbyn. If he can maintain anything like this margin, hell still be in No10 come Christmas.

Downing Street also thinks that making this election a forced choice between a Tory government and a Labour government works to their benefit. Polling for Conservative Campaign HQ shows that half of voters want the Tories in government in some way, compared to just over a quarter for Labour.

They calculate that making the election a choice between Johnson and Corbyn helps them squeeze the Brexit Party vote down something which is particularly important given Nigel Farages determination to put up candidates right across the country.

Influential Tories are also worried that if the Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson turns in a barnstorming performance, her party could threaten the Tories in their shire seats.
The Tories are, I understand, keen on more than one Corbyn-Johnson head-to-head. But they remain wary of a BBC debate after the Tory leadership one turned into a shouting match.

Johnson himself will not do the seven-way debate between the party leaders. The Tories are keen to downplay the importance of this event. Im told they are considering sending Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, Priti Patel or Rishi Sunak.

Tory fear of frack attacks

THE moratorium announced on fracking today is a sign of the Tories safety-first approach going into this election. They want to close down issues that could cost them seats.

One minister defends the decision to abandon the effort to improve the UKs energy security by saying: The reality is, it wasnt happening.

But a bigger factor was their desire not to go into the election with this as a potential vulnerability.

I understand that, in stark contrast to 2017, the manifesto will be a cautious document designed to prevent handing ammunition to Labour.

Javid slams Corbyn’s pension potshot

THE Tories are planning to accuse Labour of staging a massive raid on the pension pots of 10million voters.

Sajid Javid previewed this attack in an address to Tory MPs this week. He argued that Labours plan to take ten per cent of shares from companies with more than 250 employees and to nationalise utilities at a price set by Parliament would impose a big hit on the value of pension funds.

This would hurt the 10.4million who contribute to a private pension. Afterwards, one Tory told me Javids message was clear: Labour are coming after your money.

I understand the Tories are also preparing a tax bombshell attack on Corbyn.