Exit polls are they accurate and can they be wrong?

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TONIGHT’s exit poll has put the Tories on track to win an outright majority with 368 seats.

If it’s accurate, it means Jeremy Corbyn would be one of the worst Labour leaders in history. So how accurate are exit polls and can they ever be wrong?

The BBC projects the exit poll results outside its building in London

What did the exit poll reveal?

The exit poll, published at 10pm tonight, expects Boris Johnson to claim a magnificent majority – the best since Margaret Thatcher’s realm.

  • Tories will win 368 seats
  • Labour will drop from 262 seats to 191
  • The SNP are set to win 55 out of 59 seats in Scotland
  • Lib Dems are expected to only gain one seat

How accurate are exit polls and can they ever be wrong?

Exit polls often give an accurate rough indication of who will win.

But they will not be bang on perfect, as people vote at different times.

Experts believe they will always be fairly right because voters are asked in secret.

The 2017 exit poll correctly predicted the Tories will be the largest party, but it did not predict it would be forming a minority government.

What is an exit poll and how does it work?

An exit poll is a survey of a small proportion of voters across the UK, balanced between urban and rural areas.

Pollsters are based at a selective poling station in a chosen constituency, asking some who they voted for.

They note the choices in replica ballot paper, put it into a box so it’s opened later.

It will estimate how many seats will be won by each party, based on 144 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales.

They are also weighted slightly in favour of marginal seats.

 

Have there been any issues with exit polls in the past?

A famous example of an election poll error happened in 1992.

Two exit polls predicted a hung parliament – but the actual vote revealed the Tory government under John Major held their position.

Investigations later revealed a number of causes that led to the miscalculation – including the shy Tory factor and inadequate demographic data.