REMAINER candidates have been long telling Brits in marginal seats to vote strategically for Labour or the Lib Dems to boot the Tories out.
But tactical voting for the Conservatives over Labour or the Brexit Party could see Boris scoop a big win on Thursday.
Even after pulling out of 317 seats across the country, the few votes Nigel Farages Brexit Party is splitting the Brexit vote in key marginal seats, mimicking the results of the by-elections in Peterborough and Brecon and Radnorshire.
Every Conservative MP has promised to vote through Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal and deliver on the EU referendum, but votes for Labour or the Brexit Party candidates in constituencies the Conservatives could win could kill the chance of getting a pro-Brexit MP into Parliament and put a Remainer in instead.
The Brexit Party has been trailing in the polls for weeks and was forecast to pick up only 3 per cent of the vote in the YouGov MRP poll released in The Times last week.
But the support they do garner in crucial Leave seats could be enough to strip Boris Johnson of his majority.
While last week’s YouGov poll predicted a stonking win for the Conservatives with 359 seats, more recent polls show Jeremy Corbyn closing the gap between the two parties.
In 2017’s most marginal seats like these every vote will matter – here’s what you need to know about the swing seats that could make or break Boris’ majority.
North East Fife (currently SNP)
2017 majority: 2 votes
MRP forecast: SNP will keep the seat
Their polls predict SNP 37%, Lib Dem 35%, Conservative 21%, Brexit Party not running.
Brexit vote – but probably won’t make a difference: Conservative Tony Miklinski
Referendum: 64% Remain.
Perth and North Perthshire (currently SNP)
2017 majority: 21 votes
MRP forecast: SNP will keep the seat
Their polls predict: SNP 46 %, Con 37%, Labour 6%, Lib Dems 9%, Brexit Party 2%
Brexit vote which could make a difference: Conservative Angus Forbes.
Referendum: 60% Remain
Kensington (currently Labour)
2017 majority: 20 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives will win the seat
Their polls predict: Conservative 37%, Liberal Democrats 29%, Labour 26%, Brexit Party 2%
Brexit vote which will make a difference: Conservative Felicity Buchan
Referendum: 69% Remain
Dudley North (currently Independent, was Labour in 2017)
2017 majority: 22 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives will win the seat
Their polls predict: Conservatives 46%, Labour 39%, Brexit Party 6% (candidate stood aside), Liberal Democrats 5%
Brexit vote which will make a difference: Conservative Marco Longhi
Referendum: 71% Leave
Southampton, Itchen (currently Conservative)
2017 majority: 31 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives will keep the seat
Their polls predict: Conservatives 49%, Labour 39%, Liberal Democrats 6%
Brexit vote which will make a difference: Conservative Royston Smith
Referendum: 60% Leave
Newcastle-under-Lyme (currently Labour)
2017 majority: 30 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives will take the seat
Their predictions: Conservatives 48%, Lab 38%, Lib Dems 6%, Brexit Party 6%
Brexit vote which will make a difference if Brexit Party supporters vote Tory: Conservative Aaron Bell
Referendum: 62% Leave
Richmond Park (currently Conservative)
2017 majority: 45 votes
MRP forecast: Lib Dems will win the seat.
Their predictions: Lib Dems 53%, Conservatives 39%, Labour 6%, Brexit Party not running
Brexit vote which could make a difference: Conservative Zac Goldsmith
Referendum: 71% Remain
Crewe and Nantwich (currently Labour)
2017 majority: 48 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives will win the seat.
Their predictions: 43% Con, 39% Lab, 8% Lib Dems, 7% Brexit party
Brexit vote which will make a difference if Brexit Party backers vote Tory: Conservative Kieran John Mullan
Referendum: 60% Leave
Glasgow South West (currently SNP)
2017 majority: 60 votes
MRP forecast: SNP will keep the seat.
Their predictions: 46% SNP, 29% Lab, 16% Con, 6% Lib Dem, 3% Brexit party
Where the Brexit vote probably won’t make a difference: Conservative Kyle Thornton
Referendum: 59% Remain
Glasgow East (currently SNP)
2017 majority: 75 votes
MRP forecast: SNP will keep the seat
Their predictions: 41% SNP, 34% Lab, 19% Cons, 6% Lib Dems
Where the Brexit vote probably won’t make a difference: Conservative Thomas Kerr
Referendum: 56% Remain
Arfon (Plaid Cymru)
2017 Majority: 92 votes
MRP forecast: 48% Plaid, 29% Lab, Conservative 17%, Brexit Party 6%
Where the Brexit vote won’t make a difference: Conservative Gonul Daniels
Referendum: 64% Remain
Ceredigion (Plaid)
2017 majority: 104 votes
MRP forecast: Plaid to keep the seat.
Their predictions: 32% Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrats 22%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 13%, Brexit Party 8%
Where the Brexit vote could make a difference if Brexit Party backers voted Tory: Conservative Amanda Jane Jenner
Referendum: 55% Remain
Stirling (currently Conservative)
2017 majority: 148 votes
MRP forecast: SNP win the seat
What they are predicting: 42% SNP, Con 36%, Labour 11%, Lib Dems 8%, Brexit party not running
Where the Brexit vote could make a difference: Conservative Stephen Kerr
Referendum: 68% Remain
Canterbury (currently Labour)
2017 majority: 187 votes
MRP forecast: Labour to keep the seat
Their predictions: 47% Lab, 43% Con, 8% Lib Dems, Brexit Party not running
Where Labour Brexiteers’ votes could make a difference: Conservative Anna Firth
Referendum: 55% Leave
Airdrie and Shotts (currently SNP)
2017 majority: 195 votes
MRP forecast: SNP to keep the seat.
Their predictions: 40% SNP, 29% Lab, 22% Conservative, Brexit Party not running
Where the Brexit vote won’t make a difference: Conservative Lorraine Nolan
Referendum: 60% Remain
Barrow and Furness (currently independent, was Labour in 2017)
2017 majority: 209 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives will win the seat
Their predictions: 50% Con, 35% Lab, Lib Dems 7%, Brexit Party 5%
Where the Brexit vote could make the difference: Conservative Simon Fell
Referendum 57% Leave
Glasgow North East (currently Labour)
2017 majority: 242 votes
MRP forecast: SNP to win the seat
Where the Brexit vote won’t make a difference: Conservative Lauren Bennie
Referendum: 59% Remain
Keighley (currently Labour)
2017 majority: 249 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives will win the seat.
Their predictions: 43% Con, 42% Lab, 7% Brexit Party, 6% Lib Dems
Where the Brexit vote will make a difference: Conservative Robbie Moore
Referendum: 53% Leave
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (currently Labour):
2017 majority: 259 votes
MRP forecast: SNP will gain the seat
Their predictions: 36% SNP, 29% Lab, 22% Conservatives, 4% Brexit Party
Where the Brexit vote probably won’t make a difference: Conservative Kathleen Leslie NOT Brexit Party Mitch William
Referendum: 56% Remain
Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Currently Lab)
2017 majority: 265
MRP forecast: SNP will gain the seat
Predictions: 38% SNP, 32% Lab, 20% Conservative, 7% Lib Dems, Brexit Party not running
Where the Brexit vote probably won’t make a difference: Conservative Lynne Nailon
Referendum: 62% Remain
Lanark and Hamilton East (SNP)
2017 majority: 266 votes
MRP forecast: SNP to keep the seat.
Their predictions: 38% SNP, 34% Con, 18% Labour, Brexit Party not running
Where the Brexit vote could (but is unlikely to) make a difference: Conservative Candidate Shona Haslam
Referendum: 64% remain
Preseli Pembrokeshire (currently Conservative)
2017 majority: 314 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives will hold the seat.
Their predictions: 49% Con, 42% Lab, 5% Lib Dem, Brexit Party not running
Where the Brexit vote could make a difference: Conservative Stephen Crabb
Referendum: 55% Leave
St Ives (currently Conservative)
2017 majority: 312 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives to keep the seat.
Their predictions: 46% Conservative, 40% Lib Dem, 10% Labour, Brexit Party not running
Where the Brexit vote may keep the seat: Conservative Derek Thomas
Referendum: 55% leave
Motherwell and Wishaw (SNP)
2017 majority: 318 votes
MRP forecast: SNP will hold the seat.
Their predictions: 43% SNP, 29% Lab, 20% Conservatives, Brexit Party not running
Where the Brexit vote won’t make a difference: Conservative Meghan Gallacher
Referendum: 62% Remain
Pudsey (currently Conservative)
2017 majority: 331 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives will keep the seat.
Their predictions: 51% Con, 38% Labour, 7% Lib Dems
Where the Brexit vote probably won’t matter: Conservative Stuart Andrew
Referendum: 51% remain
Thurrock (currently Conservative)
2017 majority: 345
MRP forecast: Conservatives to keep the seat.
Their predictions: 56% Con, 32% Lab, 5% Lib Dems, Brexit Party not running
Where the Brexit vote can make a difference: Conservative Jackie Doyle-Price
Referendum: 70% Leave
Hastings and Rye (Currently independent, was Conservative)
2017 majority: 346
MRP forecast: Conservatives to win the seat.
Their predictions: 49% Con, 39% Lab, Brexit Party not running
Where the Brexit vote may make a difference: Conservative Sally Ann Hart
Referendum: 56% leave
Chipping Barnet (currently Conservative)
2017 majority: 353 votes
MRP forecast: Knife edge.
Their predictions: 41% Con, 41% Lab, 14% Lib Dems, Brexit Party not running
Where the Brexit vote will help make a difference: Conservative Theresa Villiers
Referendum: 59% Remain
Ashfield (currently Labour)
2017 majority: 441 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives to win the seat.
Their predictions: 43% Con, 32% Lab, Lib Dems 6%, Brexit Party 11%
Where the Brexit vote will make a difference: Conservative Lee Anderson
Referendum: 70.5% Leave
Inverclyde (Currently SNP)
2017 majority: 384 votes
MRP forecast: SNP to hold the seat.
Their predictions: 44% SNP, 29% Labour, 20% Conservatives, Brexit Party not running
Where the Brexit vote won’t make a difference: Conservative Haroun Malik
Referendum: 64% Remain
Bishop Auckland (Currently Labour)
2017 majority: 502 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives to win the seat.
Their predictions: 47% Con, 39% Lab, Brexit party 8%, Lib Dem 6%
Where the Brexit vote will make a difference: Conservative Dehinna Davison
Referendum: 61% Leave
Peterborough (Currently Labour)
2017 majority: 607 votes
2019 by-election: 31% Lab, 29% Brexit party
2019 majority: 683 votes
MRP forecast: 43% Con, 39% Lab, Brexit Party 7%, Lib Dems 6%
Where the Brexit vote will make the difference: Conservative Paul Bristow
Referendum: 62.7% Leave
Stroud (currently Labour)
2017 majority: 687 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives to take the seat.
Their predictions: 47% Con 43% Lab, Greens 7%, Brexit party 3%
Where the Brexit Party vote can make a difference: Conservative Siobhan Baillie
Referendum: 54% Remain
Westmorland and Lonsdale (Currently Lib Dem)
2017 majority: 777 votes
MRP forecast: Lib Dems to keep the seat.
Their predictions: 47% Lib Dem, 42% Con, Brexit Party 4%
Where the Brexit vote could make the difference: Conservative James Airy
Referendum: 53% Remain
Ipswich (Currently Labour)
2017 majority: 831 votes
MRP forecast: Conservatives to take the seat
Their predictions: 43% Con, 39% Lab, Brexit Party 7%
Where the Brexit vote may make a difference: Conservative Tom Hunt
Referendum: 57% leave
