No Deal Brexit odds: Will the the transition period end without a deal?


BORIS Johnson travelled to Brussels to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on December 9 as the Brexit transition period approaches its end.

The two leaders decided to keep talking until Sunday, December 13, to discuss a trade deal. But what do the bookies think is going to happen next? We took a look at the latest odds.

Bookies have cut the odds on a no deal Brexit

What are odds of a No Deal Brexit?

There are all sorts of odds out there on whether Britain will seal a deal or not.

Below is just a handful if you’re thinking of putting a bet on:

  • No deal: 7/5 (Smarkets)
  • UK and the EU to strike a trade deal this year: 8/15 (William Hill)
  • Not reaching a deal: 11/8 (William Hill)
  • No Deal Brexit this year: 11/8 (SM Markets)
  • Talks collapsing: 6/4 (SBK)
  • Transition period to be extended beyond 2020: 16/5 (SBK)

The bookies think the transition period will be extended after December 31.

Britain left the UK on January 31 this year and Boris Johnson has vowed not to extend the transition period – which has been extended multiple times.

Talks between the UK and the EU have stalled, and odds Mr Johnson strikes a deal with the bloc are 8/15 according to William Hill.

After the continual failed attempts to strike a deal, and the UK rushes towards a deadline for an agreement, bookies have cut the odds of not getting a deal from 2/1 to as short as 11/8.

Threats of French President Emmanuel Macron using his veto power have spooked bookies into shortening the odds on no deal.

Oddschecker spokesperson Callum Wilson: “We’ve seen a spike in activity on the UK-EU trade deal betting market in the past couple of days and, as we keep hearing of ‘sticking points’ and ‘stalemate’ out of London and Brussels, the price on no deal keeps shortening.

“The weight of money on our market still suggests punters expect a deal to be reached, but there’s every possibility that price on ‘No’ could get a lot shorter.”

Those odds have been slashed from 8/1 following Theresa May’s resignation.

Boris Johnson has vowed not to extend the transition period

When did Britain leave the EU?

Britain left the EU on January 31, but a transition period was agreed up to continue until December 31.

This means that the UK has remained tied to EU rules and regulations, alongside the customs market and common travel rules.

Britain is trying to hash out an agreement with the bloc to allow them to continue trading, without the EU being able to force rules upon the UK.

One of the biggest sticking points is fishing, and how many fish from British waters countries such as France will be entitled to.

UK negotiator David Frost and EU negotiator Michel Barnier have been holding “intensified” talks over the last few weeks.

And it came to a head over the weekend, when talks were set to come to a close.

But Boris Johnson and EU Commission Chief Ursula von der Leyen agreed to continue talks until Sunday, December 13, hoping to reach a trade deal.

What happens if the transition period ends with No Deal?

If there is no deal before the end of the transition period, the EU will leave on what Mr Johnson has branded “Australia style terms” – code for World Trade Organisation rules.

It will mean tariffs will be applied to British goods travelling to the EU and vice versa.

It would mean prices on goods such as food and drink will rise.

And Brits will face a host of rules when travelling to the EU, including needing six months left on their passport.


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here