BORIS Johnson has finally sealed a deal with the EU after months of wrangling with MPs, the DUP and Brussels.
But will he be able to deliver Brexit on 31 October as he’s promised repeatedly?
What happens in the coming hours and days will prove crucial for the PM’s Brexit plans – but it could all still be completely thrown off track.
TOMORROW
The PM will remain at the Council to discuss other issues with EU leaders – but could fly back home early to try and start the mammoth task of pursuading MPs to back his deal.
Back home his top team will be launching a huge operation to win over sceptical Tories, and try and get some Labour MPs on side too.
Many MPs will spend the next 24 hours reading the details of the deal to find out what it all means, and make a decision on whether they can back it.
SATURDAY
The Commons showdown is set to take place between 9.30am and 2.30pm.
Boris Johnson will address the Commons and lay out his deal – taking questions from across the House. He will give a statement on the EU council and how it went.
Later in the day MPs will put amendments to Boris’ deal, and the Speaker will choose whether to vote on them, and if they have enough support.
The final vote will be on the deal as a whole – and any amendments which pass with it.
WHAT IF IT PASSES?
If it passes, Britain will be on track to leave the EU on October 31.
But there are a whole host of other Bills that must be signed off too – such as on trade, agriculture and food.
The PM will have to bring those forward in the coming days if he wants to leave on time – and MPs will have to vote in favour of them all.
WHAT IF IT FAILS?
If it does not pass, then under the Benn Act Boris Johnson will be forced to ask the EU for another delay to Brexit on Saturday evening.
Boris is legally obliged to go cap in hand to the EU and ask them for another extension if there’s no deal signed off.
Strategically, the PM could try and go for a No Deal Brexit, but he will likely need an election to deliver that as MPs won’t support it.
No10 has already confirmed they will have a vote on a deal, but not a vote on whether to go for No Deal.
If Boris wanted an election, he would likely have to admit defeat and delay Brexit.
Jeremy Corbyn won’t back an election until an extension is sealed with the bloc.
Boris could decide to bite the bullet and go for a delay, feeling he has no option left as MPs have rejected his deal, and thinking that if he wins a bigger majority he can push his deal through at a later date.
The PM could try yet again for more tweaks to the deal with the EU, but the bloc are unlikely to want to do this.
If it gets thrown out then it’s up to the EU27 leaders to decide whether they want to give the PM another extension – they could say ‘no thanks, you’re leaving no matter what’.
However, today Jean Claude Juncker has said that there will be no more extensions.
Mr Tusk was slightly warmer to the idea of a delay, saying he would speak to EU leaders if Boris did request one.
It’s up to the 27 EU member states if they want to to give us one, not Mr Juncker or Mr Tusk.
But several of them have said that if there was a good reason for an extension – such as a second referendum or an election, then they could allow one.
What's in Boris' new deal?
REPLACING THE BACKSTOP
- The hated Northern Ireland backstop been replaced by a four-point plan relating to: customs, regulations, VAT and the consent of the Northern Ireland Assembly known as Stormont.
- Northern Ireland will leave the customs union with the rest of the UK – and can benefit from fre trade deals
- In practice the border will be between the UK and the island of Ireland with goods being checked at points of entry in Northern Ireland.
REGULATION
- Products entering Northern Ireland from EU countries known as the single market will be subject to tariffs.
- But this only applies if they are not set to go across the border.
EU RULES
- All references to the Level Playing Field – staying close to EU rules – have been stripped out of the Withdrawal Agreement.
- In the Political Declaration, which is not legally binding, the UK and EU endeavour to draw up a new mechanism as part of an FTA “commensurate with the scope and depth of the future relationship”.
- But we will have to stay in line with EU conventions on “state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environment, climate change, and relevant tax matters” if we are to do a future trade deal.
- But as this isn’t legally binding, it could be changed later.
CONSENT
- In the new plans the Stormont Assembly members will not be able to vote on continuing the Brexit arrangements until four years after they come into effect in 2021.
- The vote will be a head count, with a majority keeping the arrangements in place for another four years.
- If the proposals get consent from both unionists and nationalists then they will be kept in place for another eight years.
TRADE DEALS
- Under the new agreement the UK, and Northern Ireland, will be free to sign its own trade deals.
- London and Brussels are aiming for a zero-tariff deal with unlimited quotas in the future.
EU BILLS
- Under the new treaty the UK will have to pay its financial obligations to the EU.
- There is currently no exact figure on how much the divorce bill will be.
The EU have repeatedly said it would be the UK’s choice if it wants to go for a No Deal Brexit – meaning they are unlikely to push us out.
If an extension was requested and agreed, it’s likely that a special EU summit would be needed to sign it off in the coming days.
All the member states have to unanimously agree for it to get the green light, leaving the option of one person vetoing it.
But again, this is incredibly unlikely and the EU will probably continue to act as one unanimous bloc.
